Saturday, May 16, 2009

Stock market prediction after UPA forming govt.

What could be a better time for market to soar up since the election results are out and UPA coalition have the mandate to remain in power for another 5 years. Adding sugar to their victory will be the fact that they will not have to coalesce with the parties whose political agendas were degrees apart from theirs. But since we are concerned with the Indian stock market, let us analyze as to what can be the possible effect of all what has happened till now in political arena.

Some people will be assuming that market will soar tremendously on Monday the moment market opens and this would be a good time to buy. Of course there should be nothing against this statement, but the question hinging upfront will be - how much of a rally can we expect from current results given the fact that on Friday itself market had rallied 300 points in BSE buoyant on the people's optimism that one of the two major parties will most likely to form a government at center. Whereas most expected UPA to win 220-225 it won 260 seat. What TV news channels and many Newspapers had predicted, UPA results have certainly surpassed those expectations. This gives us a good reason that market should correct itself by marginally adding another 6-7% to its points.

Another factor that can add to surging of market can be that this time around there shall be no unwilling alliance with left party's which will certainly help party to move in single a direction rather than spending most its time in deciding what is in national interest and what is not . This factor can account for another 1-2%.

Finally other secondary factors which can also arise from primary factors shall like that of FII returning to India would certainly contribute to market positive sentiments can lead to another 2-3%

On an aggregate market can move up to another 12% from its current level to a level of 13600 (+/-100 points). And quite probably this rally would happen in phases. Will take at least 2 days. Meanwhile we should keep over finger crossed and hope for the best as market has its whims and fancies.

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